Commercial Real Estate is the Next Shoe to Drop
I came across this really insightful article in the New York Times entitled, As Vacant Space Grows, So Does Lenders’ Crisis. The article shed light on the fact that commercial real estate could lead to a whole new wave of banks in financial trouble. This isn’t the first time I’ve heard about this problem. The video below talks about how the mortgage crisis is far from over.
Stock analysts say commercial real estate is the next ticking time bomb for banks, which have already received hundreds of billions of dollars in capital and other assistance from the federal government. Big banks — like Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley — each hold tens of billions of dollars in commercial real estate securities. The banks also invested directly in properties.
Regional banks may be an even bigger concern. In the last decade, they barreled their way into commercial real estate lending after being elbowed out of the credit card and consumer mortgage business by national players. The proportion of their lending that is in commercial real estate has nearly doubled in the last six years, according to government data.
This whole crisis is far from over. Some media like CNBC is trying to call the bottom. I believe that the bottom is far from reached. It will most likely get much worse before it gets better.